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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2008-10-27

But, Still, There's Reason To Hope . . . 

From Virginia VirtuCon, via Generalissimo:



I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. . . . After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia. She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia‚Äďand pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being 4 and as much as 7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by 3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.



If it's at all a surprise that the "professional journalists" are completely in the tank for Obama in their news coverage (which, of course, it isn't), then is it even a leap of faith to assume that the journalistic pollsters are screwing with their polling to affect the outcome? Hardly--more like a bunny hop of faith.

Is there really any difference between calling the election early on election night and calling the election 10 days early? Anything to supress Republican turnout . . .

For what it's worth.

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