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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2008-08-30

ARRESTO MOMENTUM!! 

If I'm reading these tracking polls correctly--and I think I am--the gains Obama made from the convention have come to a screeching halt.

Both Gallup and Rasmussen do 3-day tracking polls; that means they poll every night, and then keep the results of the past three nights. Also, most of the polling is done before or during prime time, so Tuesday's polling probably picks up very little of Tuesday's events, so Wednesday's results are really one day behind events.

Clear as mud, right?

So polling results announced today include results from Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. So, today should be the first time that the results reflect some of the polling done AFTER Obama's pronouncement from the Barackopolis--in theory, that should be a favorable night of polling for him, while tossing out the polling from Tuesday should show a noticable change from yesterday's results.

Um . . . .not quite.

On Tuesday, totally pre-DNC, Gallup had McCain up by 2, Rasmussen had it all tied. On Thursday, reflecting Hillary's Tuesday night speech, Gallup had Obama up 6 (the "Hillary Unity Bump") and Rasmussen had it still even; Friday, after Bill, Gallup had him up 8, Rasmussen had him up 4. These were the groundwork for the Convention Bounce.

Today, what should be a good day with a growing lead, Gallup has Obama up by the same 8-point margin as yesterday, and Rasmussen has him up by the same 4-point edge as yesterday. If I'm doing my math correctly, that means that polling done last night--AFTER THE PALIN ANNOUNCEMENT--had Obama holding a smaller than expected 9-point advantage (after nights when it was around 15) in Gallup and holding NO advantage in the Rasmussen polling.

Bottom line: if just one day's results mean anything, the Palin announcement has temporarily halted any new movement in Obama's direction because of the Convention.

Nice.
Posted by: Michael / 8/30/2008 04:45:00 PM

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