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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2008-05-06

Idle Speculation 

So, today is the big day . . .or, at any rate, the next big day. Indiana and North Carolina, to be specific.

I think there are three possible outcomes of today's primaries.

: One: Obama wins NC by double-digits, and makes Indiana very close; in this scenario, Obama can reclaim the momentum he has let slip away with his month of bungles; he can take a deep breath, and look forward to a summer s the presumptive nominee

: Two: Hillary wins Indiana by double-digits, and finishes closer in NC than anybody expects; she can lay claim to having all the scenario, plus the best electoral scenario for November; this leads us to a summer of open warfare among Democrats

: Three: each wins the state they're favored in by the expected margin of 6-10 points; this leaves everything up in the air, with each side having a strong claim for front-runner status; I think this scenario makes it likely that Hillary will scale back campaigning, but stays in it just to see if Obama commits another major blunder

Of all these scenarios, I think the second one is the most likely. I think there are a number of people, particularly in the south still, who won't tell a pollster that they won't vote for a black man, but have no intention of voting that way. I would expect an easy win in IN--maybe 10 points--and a fairly close finish in NC.

At that point, Hillary gets to make the (all too reasonable) case that she's the only one who can hold the Democratic coalition together, and hold enough Bush-hating moderates in the fold to win in the Fall.

And she will have a point.

But Obama is too ambitious to give up now, and his supporters are far too deranged to allow him to accede at this point.

Just guessing, but I see the superdelegates start breaking for Hillary in the next couple weeks, bringing the delegate math much closer together; perhaps Howard Dean makes some crazy pronouncement in the next couple weeks, forcing the hand of some Democrats who DO NOT want their hand forced, and they then break harder for her, hoping to forestall an electoral disaster in November.

But, either way, combine Hillary's logic with the "Obama phenomenon," and all signs point to an August disaster in Denver.

And it might get worse than even Rush Limbaugh can imagine.
Posted by: Michael / 5/06/2008 01:50:00 AM

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