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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2008-02-05

Super Tuesday Prediction 

I have already said that I'm not going to drink the Cool-Aid, no matter how many times it gets re-mixed. Tonight, after reading Geraghty, I'm even more convinced about how tomorrow is going to play out.

There are, in my analysis, three salient observations. One: that Republicans, in general, are scared. Check that--they're scared silly. Which is leading many of them to turn at the last moment for the person they think has the best chance to win in November, regardless of orthodoxy. Two: that there are just enough truly undecided Republicans that I don't think the polls are able to come at all close to predicting much--perhaps, there is as much as a 10-12 point swing on the day of the vote. Three: when in doubt, the default position of a Republican is to go to national security, and to then go to the person they are most comfortable with--whoever is most established on the issue and has the best name recognition--and to pull the lever for that person. It's not the most informed way to vote, but, contrary to some optimistic analysis by Hugh, I still think the majority of Republicans are still not ver tuned in to the details of this race. Just the way it is.

All of which points to a rather sweeping night for John McCain.

I don't have the exact numbers the Geraghty came up with, but I can say that the night will swing mostly for McCain. New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, all winner-take-all to McCain; worse, I'm guessing that Illinois, Missouri, and even California slip into the McCain pile. In the end, the default vote of Republicans across the country will give John McCain the prohibitive favorite status heading out of Super Tuesday, and on to the nomination.

Not what I want to happen, again--just what I think will happen.

If this is what happens, I would hope Romney would see the writing on the wall and drop out soon. More thoughts on what he should do once he drops out tomorrow.

By the way, as an ancilliary prediction, should I be correct in my prediction for tomorrow and the Fall, I would further predict McCain loses between 36 and 38 states in the general election to Hillary, with 2-4 Senate seats gone, and 10-15 House seats.

To Obama, I would guess it would be more like 42-44 states, 4-6 Senate, and 20+ House.
Posted by: Michael / 2/05/2008 12:59:00 AM

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