<$BlogRSDUrl$>

My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2008-01-19

Predictions 

What the heck,eh?

South Carolina:

Maybe Huck has just enough with the identity politics to pull this one off, but I don't see it. I think, in the end, Republicans go to the polls and think "Commander in Chief" If that plays out, McCain wins. Third place became less important when Romney pulled his operation, but if he manages to beat Thompson for Show, that'll just about end Thompson; if, on the other hand, Thompson ekes it out, it won't have any effect on Romney, except to make sure that there's one more [barely] viable candidate.

McCain 29%
Huckabee 22%
Romney 16%
Thompson 16%

Nevada:

Democrats: This is the really interesting contest today. Can the establishment re-reassert itself, as it did in New Hampshire? Or does Obama play the food workers' endorsement into a big victory? I think, as it always does on the Dem side, the establishment pulls it out. By the way, at what pint does Edwards realize its over?

Hillary 39%
Obama 34%
Edwards 13%

Republicans: Romney is the only one really playing, and we've seen recently that he's tough to beat when he goes "all in", now that the message is economics. Third place, by the way, doesn't matter in a state that hasn't been strongly contested. And keep in mind, regardless of how the media spins this, there are more delegates at stake in Nevada (34) than there are in South Carolina (24).

Romney 37%
McCain 24%
Huckabee/Thompson 12%


Heh heh heh. Let's just wait and see how far off I am on all of this.
Posted by: Michael / 1/19/2008 09:17:00 AM

Weblog Commenting by HaloScan.com

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?