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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2008-01-19

Conclusions From South Carolina and Nevada 

My conclusion: this leaves things even more. . . well . . .inconclusive.

Romney wins one more, McCain wins one more. Total delegates awarded tonight: McCain 23, Romney 18, Huckabee 7, Thompson 2, the rest don't matter. Total delegates to date: Romney 72, McCain 38, Huckabee 29, Thompson 8.

Not a very illuminative night.

So, as everybody's been quipping for days now, everything comes down to Florida. Those 57 delegates--which are ALL awarded to the winner--represent fully 1/3 of all delegates awarded so far. If Giuliani somehow manages to win by even the slimmest of margins, he would be in second place overall; if any of the others in the top three win they'll be in first place.

The most recent polling out of Florida doesn't show any clear direction, though McCain may be opening up a small advantage there. If that holds up, it would effectively end Rudy's campaign; it could truly turn into a Romney-McCain battle at that point, with Huckabee bouncing around behind McCain like the little dog in the old cartoons supporting the big dog.

But, things can change. One of these guys could hit a "golf shot" somewhere along the way and change the whole complexion of this thing.

From the standpoint of a Republican partisan, this is a mess.

From the standpoint of an observer of things politic, this is wonderful fun.

P.S. Oh, and by the way, Hillary wins the caucus in Nevada by 51-45, but wins one less delegate than Obama. Who can explain Democrats?
Posted by: Michael / 1/19/2008 11:02:00 PM

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