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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2008-01-14

Aww, What the Heck 

Let's go ahead and make some predictions, anyway.

First, Michigan weather for Tuesday:

Snow--Mainly cloudy with some snow in the morning. Mainly cloudy in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight.

What effect will that have? Well, if conditions are difficult, maybe it supresses the Democrats coming out to vote for John McCain . . . maybe.

But I'm not counting on it.

That said, here goes:

McCain 31%
Romney 26%
Huckabee 16%
Thompson 9%
Giuliani 6%
Paul 6%


However, there will be a strange dynamic at play, even more than in New Hampshire. I think McCain wins with the vote of Democrats, winning among Democrats by a wide margin; Romney wins by a couple points among Republicans. In effect, Michigan becomes the reason Republicans all over the country remember why McCain was a pariah last summer: because he's a favorite of Democrats.

What, at the moment, will look like a McCain victory will ultimately weaken him everywhere else. At the same time, he might knock out Romney--three strikes, and all.

Then everybody can sit by and watch Thompson remind everybody about his strength as a candidate, winning South Carolina by a good margin. That will knock Huckabee out of the race.

Setting up a Thompson-Giuliani showdown in Florida. For all the marbles.

Is this what I actually THINK is going to happen? No. But it's fun speculation.

Oh, but the Michigan numbers I'll stand by.

For what it's worth.

Which is, of course, nothing.
Posted by: Michael / 1/14/2008 11:59:00 PM

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