08 Presidential Musings
I am starting to think that the 2008 Presidential election will be more and more about George W. Bush than anybody is really thinking right now.
NOT Iraq--the President, himself. Let me explain . . .
My lovely wife and I had dinner the other night with her parents, and, by and by, the conversation turned to current events. And one of the topics that came up was the President's reaction to a reporter who asked him about Tony Snow's condition. His response started with "My attitude about Tony's condition is . . . ." and went on for about 15 seconds in that typical Bush-y stilted, staccato fashion. And my wife, who is at least as conservative as I am, and is, I think, fairly representative of the suburban housewife, concluded that the President more often than not comes across as cold and unfeeling.
Hear that? Not dumb or ineloquent--cold. And I started wondering if that stylistic consideration wouldn't play a pretty big role in 2008.
Let's face it: I think a majority of the country is pretty tired of the President at this point. Those who don't downright hate him wish he played the part better--at moments like Tony Snow's illness a bit of good wordsmithing would go a long way, and even I, who like him, sometimes wish Martin Sheen could do some of the press back-and-forths, just to give the feeling that the President was at least the intellectual equal of the press.
And that threshhold isn't very high.
And, by the way, when I say "Martin Sheen" I mean "Jed Bartlett," the character from The West Wing.
At any rate, I think it's easy to make the case that in 2000 the country had had enough of the oh-too-slick politician that had exactly the right thing to say but that you could never trust to actually mean it. Which played very well into George W. Bush's hands.
In 2008, I think we're going to be ready for a little competent politicking again, but with a twist: I think the electorate is going to be looking for a person who seems to be the smartest kid in the room.
I know pollsters put a lot of stock in "likeability", and I think that plays a huge role, including being a key component of W's victories. But I think the country may have had just enough of that for now after two likeable guys in a row. Bush is the guy up the street who'll help with the yardwork and share a drink with you, and Clinton was the guy who'll bring the drink and all the pretty girls. But that hasn't really been great for the neighborhood (according to opinion polls).
What I think the electorate is going to look long and hard at for 2008 is the aura of competence and intellect--even brilliance, if someone can pull it off without seeming arrogant--coupled with easy personability, but not necessarily approachability.
So, how does that effect the Big 6? Hurts Guiliani: too gruff, too blunt, very smart but not warm enough. Hurts McCain: not that he can win, anyway, but he's also too gruff and not approachable. Hurts Edwards: too pretty, not heavy enough, though plenty personable. May Help Obama: depends on if he can us his formidable interpersonal skills to defend his short resume.
Helps Romney: this guy IS sharp, comes across as sharp, but also seems very personable.
Helps Hillary: she really is a sharp tack, and seems that way; and though "warm" has NEVER been a word used to describe her, the country is familiar enough with her that she may be over that problem.
In the long run, though, I think the person this may help the most is an unannounced candidate: Fred Thompson. The man's presence SCREAMS "gravitas", he's very good on his feet, and is a gifted public speaker. And his Tennessee drawl gives him a grandfatherly sort of quality that I think people--especially suburban mothers--will respond to. If he gets in, particularly if he gets in a little late after the country is already tired of the Big 6, he could be a breath of fresh air in an otherwise pretty stuffy contest.
At any rate, I would just love to see some of the debates between Thompson and Romney--those would have the potential to reach Lincoln/Douglas elevations, and vastly outclass anything the Dems have to offer. | |
