Election Watch List [UPDATED]
UPDATE 10:39 Oh, NOOOOOOOOO! The Allen campaign has called the networks and made the claim that the networks have flipped the numbers. That is, Allen thinks he's is actually ahead, and some of the vote counters have closed up shop and gone home for the night.
Oi.
UPDATE 10:30 Tennesse has gone to Corker, but by only 3 percent. This is a win, but by my system of tallying things, this is an indicator of GOP weakness: another negative.
Now I'm at -8
UPDATE 10:15 All the votes are in and counted in Virginia, and Webb is up on Allen by 3,000 votes, triggering an automatic recount. It's entirely possible that the balance of power in the Senate will hinge on this recount. We may not know (as I predicted) that we won't know the final results for weeks.
Anybody heard from David Boes and Ted Olson lately?
UPDATE 9:42 new stuff in green
Now its at -7, and there's a very good chance that that number could go to -10 or -12 within about an hour.
Right now Allen trails slightly with 99% in, Talent is ahead fairly comfortably but the big cities are still out, Corker is ahead fairly comfortably, and Burns looks pretty weak right now. If these trends hold and Talent loses from the big cities, we'll have a Senate that is 50 Dems, 49 GOP, and 1 Ind who is really a Dem.
A Democratic House, a Democratic Senate, a majority of Democratic governorships.
Yep. That's a bloodbath.
UPDATE 9:04 p.m. new updates in blue (and, no, I didn't just find the color thingy on blogger)
Right now, I have the GOP at -6 on my informal card. That, based on my experience (ha ha ha) is a beating, but not a full bloodbath. FoxNews shows the Dems have control of the House by one seat at this point, and the Senate is still out (four races within 3 points, and the Dems need 3 of those to control the Senate).
Keep a close eye on Virginia and Maryland--these are both too close to call, and could both lead to litigation.
UPDATE 8:30 pm As races go one way or the other down below, I will mark the effect in red.
As of right now, it doesn't look like a full-blown bloodbath, but it also doesn't look very good. As of right now, both houses of Congress look pretty close, and Colorado looks BAD!!
My scoresheet has the Republicans at -3, with three races that could be called for the GOP still awaiting a call, and several races for the Dems not yet called but looking bad for the GOP.
Stay tuned . . .
UPDATE: If stories of the exit polls being skewed by up to 6% are true, that could really effect this whole thing. Therefore, I am not counting anything in the win or lose column until the number of precincts reporting is about 40%.
In 2002 I made a list of races to watch, starting in the East and working my way across the country. In this fashion, by about 5:30 I knew Jeb won handily, the GA Senate seat was in GOP hands, the MD governor was a Republican, and the trend was pushing hard all across the country for our side.
So, in the spirit of that night, here is my list of races that I'm watching tonight. The margin is an indicator of strength. That is, most of the time a win is a win and you don't get points for moral victories. But in the case of elections, a closer than expected margin could be the leading indicator of a trend, so. . . I don't think it's necessary to win every important race--in fact, I don't think we can. But if we can hit the targets I've identified it would mean the GOP resurgence was no fluke, and I'd be hopeful of having a decent night.
East
FL Gov--Crist by 10%; if he wins by 10, it could pull enough votes to elect . . . Crist by 7% with 82% of the vote in (-1) 7% at 92% (-1) 8% with 94% (-1)
FL 16--Joe Negron by any amount Negron down by 1000 votes with 84% in down by 2200 with 92% down by 2300 with 94%
VA Senate--Allen by any margin is a big victory Allen up by 32,000 with 94% in--gotta wonder why the networks are holding this call . . . .oh, never mind Allen by 29,000 with 96% by 6,700 with 98%
CN Senate--Leiberman by 12%; not exactly a victory for our side, but a good rebuke of the KosKids could signal a good night Leiberman by 8% with 30% in 9% at 41% by 9% with 62%
NJ Senate--Kean within 4%; I don't think there's any way to overcome the corrupt machine in NJ, but a close race could mean something Menendez by 10% with 71% in (-1) 9% at 81% (-1) 8% at 95% (-1)
PN Senate--Santorum within 3%; I just don't think he can overcome everything. Too bad, too. Casey by 20% with 46% in--OUCH!! (-1) 20% at 65% (-1) 20% with 81% (-1)
MD Senate--Steele within 3%; too much Democratic machinery Cardin by only 2,500 votes with only 31% in--wonder why this one got called so quickly Steele is actually ahead by 4% with 45% in--WHEN ARE THEY GONNA RETRACT THEIR CALL!?!?!? (WaPo has retracted) Cardin by 1,600 with 57%
Central
OH 15--Pryce by any margin; she was a top target Pryce by 3,800 votes with 92% in--again, gotta wonder why this one hasn't been called yet by 3,100 at 97%--AGAIN Final by 2% (+1)
TN Senate--Corker by 6% Corker by 5% with 66% of the precincts in--AGAIN, where's the call? by 54,000 at 82%--AGAIN by 60,000 with 87%
MI Gov--DeVos within 4% Granholm up by 10% with only 21% in 15% at 43% (-1) (-1)
MI Senate--Bouchard within 4% Stabenow up by 12% with 21% in 17% at 43% (-1) (-1)
MN Senate--Kennedy by any margin Klobuchar up by 28% with 18% in 26% at 36% (-1) (-1)
MN 6--Bachmann by any margin Bachmann up by 4% with 24% reporting by 6% at 41%--AGAIN by 6% at 53% (+1)
TX 22--if Sekula-Gibbs can pull this one off, at least one bright Dem hope would be dashed Lampson up by 34% with 11% reporting by 10% with 55% by 10% with 66% (-1)
West
by this point, we should have a good idea where everything's going, so there are fewer things to watch out here
MT Senate--Burns by any margin too early Tester at 10% with 4% by 6% with 6%
Colorado--all of it; there is a good chance that this state will shift dark blue tomorrow too early Gov to the Dems, everything else too early CD7 to Dems, CD 4 too close, StateLeg too early (-1)
WA Senate--McGavick within 5%; again, the machine too early Cantwell by 11% with 14% in
AZ 5--JD Hayworth by 5% still too early Mitchell by 7% with 79% in by 8% with 95% (-1)
So there's what I'll be watching for, for what its worth.
I stand by my earlier prediction that we will not know who controls Congress before we go to bed tonight. I think enough of the close races will break GOP that the balance will be in doubt until the lawyers get a chance to fight it over.
Without a full prediction, my sense of the race is getting more positive. I don't think tomorrow night will be anywhere close to the bloodbath the pundits think it will be, but just what the final count will be I have no idea at this point.
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