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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2006-11-02

The Beginnings of a Conservative Resurgence, Or Just An Electorate Returning To Its Senses

That's the big question in the face of this latest round of polling on the ballot initiatives.

Forty-seven percent of respondents said they approve of Ref I, while 49 percent disapprove, according to the Rocky Mountain News/CBS 4 poll by Public Opinion Strategies.

A similar poll for the News and CBS 4 in early September showed 58 percent in support of Ref I and 38 percent against.

That sounds about right to me, though, given the poll's internals, those numbers could actually be even wider for the No votes (poll of registered voters on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday).

In addition,

Fifty-three percent of respondents said they would vote yes and 43 percent said no [on Amendment 43]. Those numbers are virtually the same as in the September poll.

And, on top of that, two more useful bits of information in the poll:

The pot measure, Amendment 44, is getting crushed — losing eight points of support since early September.

Only 34 percent of respondents support the proposal, which would legalize possession of up to an ounce of marijuana for those over 21. Sixty-one percent oppose the amendment — up from 53 percent last month.

And:

A sharp drop in support for the minimum-wage ballot issue has put the measure in the "danger zone" of not passing.

Just 53 percent of recent respondents said they'd vote for Amendment 42, which would raise the minimum wage to $6.85 and then increase it annually by inflation, as measured by the Denver-Boulder-Greeley Consumer Price Index.

The "yes" vote is down from 74 percent support in a mid-September poll, . . .

So it would seem there are some very important questions that come out of this round of polling.

A. To what degree are the initiatives driving turnout?

B. Is turnout for these initiatives any indication of pattern voting in statewide races? (i.e., will a sound defeat of Ref I indicate a good showing for Republicans?)

C. Are these polling trends indicative of a "wave" of conservative sentiment returning home just in time for the election?

D. Or, are these simply indicative of Colorado's typical conservatism cathing up to itself on issues, while having no effect on candidates?

Answers to all these, and much much more, just next Tuesday night.
Posted by: Michael / 11/02/2006 12:52:00 AM

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