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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2006-08-12

Warning: Pessimism Attack Coming (with correction)

This post was originally going to be titled "Warning: Electoral Massacre Coming." But I thought maybe I should reveal my state of mind instead of prognosticating.

So here's the confluence of datae that are driving my pessimism.

--Start with my post from last night.

--proceed to this poll and this poll, both showing generic Congressional vote going Democrat by an 18-point margin. Yes, I know that this is never a great predictor of actual electoral results, but . . . . 18 points!

--Two words: Arlen Specter. If that is cryptic to you, refer here.

--Nobody in the GOP seems willing to state the obvious--that the media has taken sides and are making whatever "mistakes" they can to influence the electorate away from the GOP and--in some cases--survival.

--How's that Immigration Reform coming along? Border Security, anyone?

--Tax Code Reform? Social Security? The Judiciary (sure, we got Roberts and Alito, but the Circuit Courts are still awfully empty)? Energy Independence?

--And all those issues with a 30-vote advantage in the House, and a 55-45 advantage in the Senate.

And then, to add folly to failure, the U.S. pushes a resolution through the United Nations that does NOT have a "Chapter VII" component, does NOT call for an international force to secure South Lebanon (instead opting for the already-proven useless Lebanese army and a larger, already-proven useless UNIFIL contingent), and does NOT call for a disarming of Hizbullah; and does NOT insist on a return of the Israeli hostages taken in the event that started the war; and legitimizes the odd dispute over the Shaaba Farms. This, in effect--and with a HUGE piece of cooperation from Ehud Olmert--returns the situation to the status quo, just more crowded; in effect, it hands Hizbullah a victory, makes Nasrallah a Muslim hero, and achieves NOTHING of what Israel said it wanted.

[CORRECTION: apparently, the resolution DOES call for the return of the Israeli hostages--though in the context of an exchange. However, it does not mention Iranian or Syrian involvement, so . . .]

And that is what SecState Rice worked so hard to accomplish.

And at the same time the whole process gives weight to the obvious anti-Semitism of the U.N. in general and of Kofi Annan in particular.

What has happened to the Republican Party, on a national level, since about Labor Day of last year, is that they have not only proven to be ineffective at fighting for the their principles thanks to certain members' squishiness, but in many cases they have proven to be UNWILLING TO FIGHT.

For that matter, they even sometimes appear willing to be complicit in the schemes and maneuvers of the other side.

You want to talk about losing your base? It's possible to recover the base when you just appear weak--given the other choice.

But it is not possible to get your base to do what you need them to do before and on election day if you appear to be inrecoverably bumbling and inept.

People are willing to side with weak. They are not willing to side with weak and wrong--and at this point, that's what the GOP looks like.

So, knowing nothing, have no data to back this up, I'm going to predict that the House will pass to Democratic control by more than five seats, on the Senate could easily end up being one of those goofy 50-48+2 ties.

Wake up, Republicans. Try, just for a minute or two, to remember what matters and go out and fight for it.
Posted by: Michael / 8/12/2006 01:57:00 AM

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