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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2006-06-15

Election Analysis

In case you missed it, RedState has a pretty good analysis of the state of play for the Senate this Fall. Their conlusion:

Just to make it easier to keep score at home, these ten seats currently break 6-4 for the GOP, so, yes, Republicans need to win more than half of them to avoid losing ground, while the Dems need to win at least nine of them (all ten, unless the one GOP winner is Chaffee and he switches sides) to retake the Senate. There's also a few other races that may not be competitive but will require the frontrunner to break a sweat, like VA (Allen-R) and AZ (Kyl-R), maybe NV (Ensign-R), and in Dem primaries Joe Lieberman and Daniel Akaka, although Lieberman should win even if he loses his primary. FL, NE, ND and WV remain the GOP's big recruiting failures, where potentially competitive races got away from us.

Their analysis seems pretty right, to me. The key to me, however, is the section I highlit. In Florida, Katherine Harris is as weak a candidate as we've got anywhere; NE should have been Tom Osborne's seat, but he decided to challenge an incumbent Republican governor (and lost); North Dakota and West VA are beyond my expertise, but I agree that these are sad missed opportunities for the GOP.

Nonetheless, it does look a bit more optimistic that the GOP will hold--maybe lose a couple, but not power--especially if Iraq and the economy keep going the way they're going right now.
Posted by: Michael / 6/15/2006 12:27:00 AM

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