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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2006-04-05

Current State of the Governor's Race

Rasmussen has a new poll out today, polling the Democrat candidate for Colorado Governor, Bill Ritter, against both of the Republican candidates, Bob Beauprez and Marc Holtzman.

Note: while Rasmussen was remarkably accurate in predicting the result of the 2004 Presidention race, I have noticed that his track record on local races shows a bit more . . . margin for error. Also, it is only April. So take this poll for what it's worth in light of those two facts.

Salient numbers: Ritter v. Beauprez: Ritter 41%-40
Ritter v. Holtzman: Ritter 41%-36

Bad news? Hardly. As Rasmussen puts it:

In our February survey of this contest, Ritter was surging against the Republicans. Ritter then led Beauprez 40% to 33%, and led Holtzman 41% to 28%.

Still, keep in mind that it's early, that this is, essentially, a purple state, and that the GOP has a long primary season ahead of it which is already shaping up to be pretty divisive. My guess would be that the GOP candidates will both start to surge ahead as the news coverage tracks their primary, but then it will tighten considerably after Ritter starts spending his war chest in the Fall. In fact, this race could look exactly the same as it does now in late October.

At least I hope so. The governor's race is sure to have some effect on the state legislature, which really needs to go back to GOP control.
Posted by: Michael / 4/05/2006 11:52:00 AM

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