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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2005-10-14

Polling on C & D

The Rocky Mountain News, in conjunction with Public Opinion Strategies, conducted a statewide poll of 500 voters related to Referenda C & D. The key findings:

:Referendum C is favored by a 49-46 margin, well within the margin of error

:Referendum D is favored by a 50-44 margin

:voters believe that C will pass by a 49-35 margin

If you've been getting tired of the advertisements for C and D, don't look for a break anytime soon. With the margin this close, you can expect quite a blitz until November 1st.

If memory serves, doesn't conventional wisdom hold that ballot referenda tend to run strong early, and then close up at the end? If that's the case, then I would think traditional electoral dynamics favors opponents by a nose. And at any rate, with the battle lines being basically the Governor, the legislature, all the business people and all the unions against Jon Caldara, Joe Stengel and Mike Rosen, you should think that C and D would be doing substantially better.

One of the key points which will work in favor of opponents is these two little tidbits from the poll:

:But the poll shows they aren't totally buying the argument that Colorado has a budget crisis: 51 percent said there are problems, but no crisis.

:If Referendums C and D win, Weigel said, it will be despite the fact that two-thirds of the voters say government will waste the money and 55 percent believe their taxes will increase.

One would think that will show up in the media blitz over the next two weeks.
Posted by: Michael / 10/14/2005 11:54:00 PM

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