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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2005-07-18

More On Referenda C and D, With Numbers

The Denver Post's top story this morning was a poll they commissioned through Mason-Dixon Polling.

If the election were held today, 43 percent of the 625 respondents said they would vote in favor of Referendum C, and 42 percent said they would not. Fifteen percent said they were undecided. . .

On Referendum D, 45 percent of the poll's respondents said they would vote against it, compared with 39 percent in favor. Sixteen percent said they were undecided.

Now, granted, we haven't seen the full-court press yet on either of these issues. But if the economic news keeps being good, I have a hard time seeing these measures passing in the Fall. And if I remember right (which I'm sure I don't), most ballot measures have their strongest support early in the process, and lose a lot of ground as the election draws near. If that pattern holds, these two are toast.

"It's early, but I think D is in trouble and C is going to take a heck of a sales job," said pollster Brad Coker, a partner in Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., noting that respondents who said they were undecided are typically more likely to vote no.

"If the opponents run an effective campaign, it is going to be an uphill battle for the supporters," Coker said.

With many states looking at TABOR or modified TABOR this Fall, this is going to be a pretty interesting story. And a defeat of these would be a major blow, I should think, to the power base of the Democrat-led State Legislature.
Posted by: Michael / 7/18/2005 02:05:00 AM

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