Predictions
Before I dig in to the whole prediction thing, I thought I would review past performances--that is, 2002. The night before the election I made a list of all the races that I would watch closely to get a feel for the pulse of the election. The list was organized according to time zone, so I could track it as it worked its way across the country. So the first column had both the race and a prediction of what would be considered a "good" win for our side. It included things like FL GOV +5 (Florida Governor's race, Bush win +5 for a good win (he won by 14)) and GA SEN GOP (Georgia Senate win). What became clear as the night progressed was that, of the 15 races that I was following, the GOP was winning nearly all of them--I think the final tally was 12 wins, two losses and one push. It turned out to be a perfect storm--a storm which not a single poll picked up.
I think were in for much the same thing tomorrow night, though perhaps not as dramatically. Here, state by state, are my predictions for tomorrow night--going from east to west, and by level of race.
Note: Amendment 36 in Colorado, THE REALLY STUPID IDEA, is now polling in the low 30's--it will not pass.
PRESIDENTIAL
Florida(27)--Bush +3 (not that I won't take a +1, but +3 bodes bad for Kerry)
New Hampshire(4)--Kerry (note: obviously, a Bush win would be a "good")
New Jersey(15)--Kerry +5 (the union machine will manufacture what it needs)
Pennsylvania(21)--Kerry
Ohio (20)--Bush +3 (don't underestimate the effect of the gay marriage issue)
Michigan(17)--Bush (again, gay marriage)
Wisconsin(10)--Bush
Minnesota (10)--Bush
Iowa (7)--Bush +4
Colorado (9)--Bush +6 (this is a coattail margin)
New Mexico (5)--Bush +3
Nevada (5)--Bush
Based on this projection, I see the President winning 323 electoral votes to John Kerry's 215. I further predict a popular vote margin of 51%-48%. In both respects, an easy win and a margin large enough to claim "mandate."
SENATE
Florida--Martinez(R)
North Carolina--Burr(R) +5
South Carolina--DeMint (R) +8
Louisiana--Vitter (R) 50% (this is my least confident prediction)
Oklahoma--Coburn (R) +5
Colorado--Coors (R) (caveat: Colorado has a history of splitting its ballot, and this also depends on the President's coattails)
South Dakota--Thune (R) +3 (this has to be outside the margin of litigation)
Alaska--Murkowski (R)(but who the heck knows)
As I look at this, this seems like a very "perfect storm" Senate prediction, but it really isn't all that far-fetched. I doubt the GOP can really pick up five seats in the Senate, which is what those predictions indicate, but I can also see how it would easily happen. Generally, I think a four seat pickup is more likely, but I have a hard time deciding which pick to back off of--we'll just have to see.
Note that my Presidential picks aren't nearly as rosy as Hugh's, or even the perpetual cynic Bill Kristol. That is, perhaps, where the perfect storm breaks down. But I'm still looking for a pretty early, pretty happy night tomorrow.
You better believe I'll be watching CBS just to watch Dan Rather choke on the words "CBS news is calling Florida for President Bush"--watch him age before your very eyes.
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