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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2004-10-13

Why Did He Wait So Long?

Baseball fans will remember one July night in 1983 when George Brett hit a game-changing home run, only to have it taken away because he had pine tar too high up on his bat. What ensued was one of the most explosive reactions by an athlete to an umpires' decision ever captured on film.

I was reading a book a few years ago that added a new fact to that story: the Yankee manager (Billie Martin, I believe)who lodged the protest that resulted in the homer being taken away had noticed the pine tar two or three weeks prior to that night. He took that information and sat on it, waiting for a moment when its use could be game-changing. Clearly, the ploy worked.

Everybody needs to remember that George W. Bush is a baseball man.

He saved the best line of attack--John Kerry's 1991 vote not to authorize war on Iraq--for the last half-hour of the last debate. And he delivered it in a rebuttal opportunity, which guaranteed that Kerry did not get an opportunity to answer.

Taking the baseball analogy further, for the last month the President has been playing the first three games of a seven game series on the road--the debate format with the mainstream media. The task of any road team in a series is just to keep it close, so you can close the deal on your home field.

The President has succeeded in accomplishing just that: that the Kerry camp is ecstatic to be tied in the polls at this point tells you everything you need to know about their expectations. And that's if you think the polls are even close to accurate, which I don't think is the case (remember, Zogby called the 2002 Colo Senate for Tom Strickland by 9 points 3 days before the election--Allard won by 5).

Now, the President goes back to his home turf with a fistful of Kerry blunders in the debates to bang on, a substantial financial advantage (I'm just guessing here, since Kerry had to spend from his $75 mil in August), a potentially game-ending offensive starting up in Iraq, and a substantial advantage on the serious issues of the day.

I'm feeling okay about this whole thing.
Posted by: Michael / 10/13/2004 11:40:00 PM

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