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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2004-10-20

A Note On The Polls

First of all, I continue to be encouraged by the polls that keep trickling out. And, lucky for me, I don't have to go over each of them--just link to RealClearPolitics and you'll see exactly what I'm seeing.

And I know there are a handful of polls that show this to be a neck-and-neck race. The Harris Poll has even gone through some extraordinary intellectual calisthenics to show how the old turnout models probably don't apply this year, and how that makes a five-point difference in the race.

But what Harris really points out is that the pollsters don't know what's going on. Remember how surprised everybody was in 2002 when the GOP picked up seats? So then they changed all their models; unfortunately, it appears that the biggest factor those models are looking at is the angry youth factor. Thus, the swing to Kerry.

But we know from recent experience in Missouri and Louisiana that the biggest surprise turnout factor has been the traditional-marriage conservatives. This group turned out in gargantuan numbers early this year to propel Traditional Marriage Amendments to easy victories, and did so well under everybody's radar. I also suspect that the Evangelical Christian vote--of which some 4 million stayed home four years ago--is going to overwhelm the experts this time around.

Now, I don't remember every state in which there is a ballot initiative on Traditional Marriage, but I know Ohio is one of those. If the Right follows form and turns out in droves, that can only be very good news for the President.

In an aside, I had a conversation with a well-placed GOP "source" today (sorry--I don't mean to throw around pointless journalistic terms) who told me the word she has is the campaign polls show a comfortable Bush lead and a solid Coors lead in Colorado. For what it's worth. . .
Posted by: Michael / 10/20/2004 11:53:00 PM

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