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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2004-10-02

The First Salvo

As predicted, here's the first in what I expect will be a long string of MSM stories about the resurrection of the Kerry candidacy.

Three points about this poll. First, remember it's a poll of registered voters, which is notoriously less reliable than polls of likely voters. Second, remember that the source is Newsweek, which four weeks ago had a poll with the President in the lead by 13. If that earlier poll can be wrong by anywhere from 6 to 8 points, so can this one. And third, the first poll was about 39% GOP, 30% Dem; this most recent poll 36% Dem, 34% GOP. An 11 point swing in sample . . .yeah, should just about account for that little swing in results.

I won't bother to go into detail on the LATimes poll, since it contains it's own disclaimer. (Courtesy RCP)

There's nothing new here--nobody needs to get their undies in a bunch.

Enjoy your Sunday, everybody.
Posted by: Michael / 10/02/2004 10:39:00 PM

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