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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2004-10-04

A Bit More Realistic

Real Clear Politics has the lowdown (as usual) on all the latest polls.

The cumulative effect seems to be a slight tightening of the race. Three polls have substantial bounces for Kerry, two polls show no change from before the debate. Interestingly, the three that show the bounce--Newsweek, CBS, and CNN/Gallup--all come from sources of notable bias, though I haven't seen the internals enough (except Newsweek) to thoroughly discredit them. However, ABC and Pew both show little or no bounce, and that seems more in line with reality to me.

Is it probably true that Kerry's performance re-energized his base? Sure. More likely, the effectiveness of the post-debate spin re-heartened a flagging base. But we've seen Kerry bounces before, and they seem to be fleeting, at best.

By my quick accounting, we're still waiting on an up-to-date Battleground Poll, Time magazine poll, and FoxNews Poll. We'll wait to see what they show before putting a lid on the first debate.

Of course, the poll that will probably have the greatest effect is the one that comes out Friday--the Labor Department's job numbers. Watch for that as a major setup to the Friday debate.
Posted by: Michael / 10/04/2004 11:36:00 PM

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