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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2004-09-02

Four Numbers That Matter

I've held out along about getting too excited about polls. Of course, that hasn't stopped me from posting about them--I just include a caveat.

However, it is now September, the Labor Day weekend is upon us, and these things start to matter. So. . .

Item number one: Rasmussen has the President up by a 49-45 margin in today's three-day tracking poll. This is the first time since April that the President has enjoyed a four-point margin. But that's not the number I would get hung up on--that would be this one. Even while Kerry held a small advantage for almost all of August, the President's Job Approval number has never dipped below 50%, and today climbs to 54%.

Item two: The ARG poll today shows a one point advantage for the President--48-47 (head to head). This reflects a four point swing since the last poll in early August. (courtesy RCP)

Item three: Tonight's Zogby Poll has the President up by 46-44. This reflects a NINE point swing since the polls of August 12-14. Of course, I think we all know how much Zogby can be trusted. . .

And Item Four: of which I have no advanced knowledge. That, of course, is tomorrow's Job Growth numbers from the Commerce Department. After two months of relatively lackluster numbers, a strong number for August could be critical to the momentum the President has built. The "experts" seem to be expecting something in the range of 150,000; it would sure be nice if that number jumped to 200,000 or so.

Correction, and Update: Of course, it's the Labor Department that has the jobs numbers, not Commerce. And 144,000 is not overwhelming, but it, plus the revisions upward of the last two months, should be enough to keep the President's momentum rolling along.
Posted by: Michael / 9/02/2004 11:41:00 PM

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