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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2004-07-17

Oh, Florida. . .
 
Yes, yes. . .it's a poll.  But it's good to get a snapshot at this juncture, roughly two weeks out since the "dynamic" John Edwards was added to the Kerry team.
 
According to Strategic Vision (courtesy RCP) despite Edwards, the President holds a statistically insignificant 2 point lead in Florida at this juncture.  Read further down and you get the meat of the issue:
 
However, a concern for the Kerry-Edwards campaign must be that, despite the media focus in the past week on the Edwards selection and the Kerry-Edwards visit to Florida, they were not able to pull ahead of the president with a solid lead. Indeed, our poll indicates no strong bounce for the Democrats."
 
The poll also gave President Bush an approval rating of 51 percent. On his handling of the economy, it gave him a 47 percent approval rating. On the war in Iraq, it gave the president a 53 percent approval rating.
 
"The good news for the President is that he is over the magical 50 percent mark for an incumbent," said Johnson, "Iraq is the number to watch and will, I believe, drive the election. If his approval numbers for Iraq begin to increase, I expect that his lead will increase; if it falls, Kerry has an opening. Events in Iraq and the war on terrorism will govern this election."
 
When asked if they felt the country was going in the right direction or the wrong direction, 48 percent said right, 38 percent said wrong, and 14 percent were undecided.
 
Now, in the interest of full disclosure, this poll is a bit of an outlier.  Nonetheless, the internals are very positive.  One high-value target could swing this election from neck-and-neck to blowout real quick.
 
I also note the interview I heard on Hannity on Friday with Ed Goeas of the Battleground Poll.  I seem to recall that it was the most accurate of the polls headed into the 2000 election, getting just about all of the battleground states right.  Anyway, he said that they've seen a small move towards Kerry-Edwards, not the 10 points some were predicting but not insignificant.  However, in his opinion, this race has hardened to the point where, if events go poorly it could be a close Kerry win, OR if events go well it will swing decidedly in the President's direction.  Close for Kerry, big for Bush. 
 
Sounds like a bumper sticker waiting to happen.
Posted by: Michael / 7/17/2004 10:59:00 PM

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