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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2004-07-24

History

Just out of curiosity--and also because it was a slow news day--I went back and scanned over some of the polling data from the 2000 election.

Yeah, I know. . .it's gotta be a real slow news day. . .

Anyway, while I was unable to pull up anything as useful as RCP's polling scoreboard, I was able to pull up via google about a dozen stories and reports from 2000. Basically, going into the Dem convention Gore trailed a little, and came out a little ahead, which reflected an improvement for his numbers of anywhere from 5-15 points in the runup to the DNC.

Now, I tend to think that polling data is going to be pretty useless if this race stays close going in to November. I just don't think there's any way to get a good enough sample to call the tight states. I also don't think there will be nearly as much volatility in the polls as there was four years ago. However, I am heartened by the numbers as they stand right now. Even if Kerry gets a 5-point bounce from the DNC, history seems to indicate that that will largely disappear with the RNC, and the Bush team can still blitz the airwaves for three weeks after the DNC to get K-E off the front page.

Now, if they would just get out there in force--I know: buy up huge amounts of ad time on the night of Kerry's speech. I'm afraid that "waiting 'til you see the whites of their eyes" might just give opinion too much time to harden.
Posted by: Michael / 7/24/2004 11:23:00 PM

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