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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2004-03-25

Polls, polls, polls. . .

The gents over at Powerline are all worked up over the Rasmussen Tracking poll, which took a five-point turn two nights ago. I think the cynic on staff is thinking this is the fat lady warming up offstage.

I take a different thought. Five points?? In one night on a three-day tracking poll?? Which (I'm no pollster, but I think the math goes like. . .) means that in one sample of one night Kerry held a 15 point advantage.
Right. So Rasmussen polled heavily in New York, San Fransisco, and Boulder on one night. Does anybody really think that Kerry holds even a 4-point advantage, much less a 15 point one?

Watch this space for the next couple days. I predict that once that night gets out of the mix, you'll see the numbers go back to essentially tied again.

For more lucid poll reading, check out this analysis in the WashTimes. If we learned nothing three and a half years ago, we should have learned that the popular vote means squat, and the electoral vote is everything. Right now, the Bush lead in Pennsylvania means the Dems are doomed, doomed I say!
Posted by: Michael / 3/25/2004 11:49:00 PM

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