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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2004-02-19

The Sky is Falling. . . In the Blue States

My disdain for polls, especially at this point in the cycle, will become a broken record by the end of this election cycle. I don't put much stock in a poll that swings 13 points in nine days; nor do I invest much in another poll that's got the Prez up by 5 points, having made substantial jumps in the day-to-day numbers in the past few days.

However, a poll that at least attempts to look at the election how it really works is at least a little interesting. Zogby conducted his poll on a red state/blue state basis, with the results very encouraging. The President beats John Kerry handily in the red states, while being in the margin of error across the board in the blue states. All the President really needs to do is hold the red, and sandbag a couple of the blue (say, Illinois, New Mexico, Minnesota or Oregon) and we get an electoral landslide. Frankly, I don't care if he loses New York and California by 40% (though I would love to see him compete in CA, hopefully helping knock out Barbra Boxer), as long as he holds the red and grabs a few swing states.

The money graf:

Q. Who would do a better job of dealing with Al Qaeda, Saddam Hussein, Moammar Gaddafi, North Korea and Iran? George W. Bush or John Kerry?

Fifty-percent of voters said Bush would do a better job compared to the 33% of voters who felt John Kerry would do a better job. Fifty-eight percent of current military members and 53% of veterans feel that Bush would do a better job while 32% of current military members and 27% of veterans gave the nod to Kerry. Gun owners and investors by overwhelming margins of 63% to 23% and 58% to 28% respectively, feel Bush would do a better job in dealing with rogue states and leaders. Non-investors also thought Bush would do a better job in dealing with rogue states and leaders by a margin of 48% to 35%. Church-goers and non-church-goers alike thought Bush would do a better job. Daily church-goers and weekly church-goers favored Bush by margins of 57% to 22% and 62% to 21% respectively. Non-church goers also favored Bush to deal with rogue nations and leaders by a 42% to 36% margin. Forty-nine percent of NASCAR, high school sports and little league sports fans think Bush would do a better job of dealing with rogue states and leaders and 33% felt that Kerry was the better choice. Forty-eight percent of non-NASCAR fans also thought Bush would be better to deal with rogue states and leaders while 32% favored Kerry.

It's the war, stupid!

Of course, Zogby had Ted Strickland up by 9 pts two days before he lost by 5 to Sen. Allard two years ago, so. . . At least this model is interesting; I'm waiting to see the Battleground Poll come out. Celinda Lake and Ed Goeas ran this model in 2000, and I think it was the best model at that time.

Posted by: Michael / 2/19/2004 12:08:00 AM

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