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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2004-01-14

One Down. . .

Carol Moseley Braun has decided to throw in the towel, and will endorse Howard Dean.

Well, lucky for him--that ought to add seven or eight votes to his grand total. That may be just enough to stop the bleeding.

It's only a matter of time before Kucinich and Sharpton follow, with their support likely also going to Dean (another 12 votes). I don't see the Rev. Al dropping until after South Carolina, where the strong black vote should be enough to leverage him into a strong speaking engagement at the convention, but he'll go soon enough.

Looking at polls (a dubious way to predict behavior, to be sure), and following some of the analysis (esp. Carl Cameron's) it's possible (not likely, but possible) that Gebhardt takes Iowa, Clark takes NH, and Feb 3rd splits for Dean, Leiberman and Kerry, with maybe Edwards showing strong enough to keep going. In other words, in the GOP "perfect storm" scenario, by the end of the first wave of Terry McAuliff's brainchild there are still six viable candidates alive and kicking, and the survival crucible will be the ability to spend more money (which will leave less for the general, not to mention the down-ticket stuff). Meanwhile, George Bush hasn't spent a dime, and the six empty Senate seats in the south still aren't getting any contest from the national Democrats because they're still at the cannibal feeding frenzy.

How's the adage go? When your enemy is busy hanging himself. . . I think I'll just pop some popcorn and sit back for the show.
Posted by: Michael / 1/14/2004 11:55:00 PM

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