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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2004-01-15

I don't really know where to go tonight. Too much to cover with too little actual facts, and all speculation. The polls are interesting, but I'm becoming increasingly jaded about their value--if memory serves, one of the last polls in 2002 had Sen. Allard losing, and he won by five points. Not a big margin, to be sure, but not recount fodder, either.

What's really interesting is the increasing meltdown from the Dems. Dean's numbers are crumbling, Clark keeps adding ammo for his defeat by his own foolishness and his long-term memory problems (see Powerline's analysis of his testimony before Congress just 16 months ago), Gephardt has no real strength beyond Iowa and Missouri, Kerry doesn't have the numbers to sustain beyond his early targets, and Edwards' new numbers have to be some sort of statistical anomaly. As I posited last night, these guys are likely to spill so much of each others' blood in what will be a nasty primary fight that the winner can only stagger through the finish line and into the general election. To their credit, Kerry has at least remained consistent with his defense of his Senate vote for the war resolution (no matter how convoluted the intellectual calisthenics) and Gephardt has stayed strong on the issues that divide him from the field.

But I suspect the last two left in the ring will be Dean and Clark, and both of these guys have proven to be so goofy and volatile that there's no credible way the Dems can fight a sustained battle without massive party flight. Whoever wins should consider signing on Ted Kennedy as veep, just to act as a chaperone.
Posted by: Michael / 1/15/2004 11:58:00 PM

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