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My personal musings about anything that gets on my radar screen--heavily dominated by politics.

2005-01-16

Opposition Response to the SOS

Alternative title: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

The Democrats have not, to my knowledge, rolled out an official response to the Governor's State of the State speech. But they did manage to point out some of their disagreements to the reporters for the Rocky Mountain News. Here they are, from Friday's edition.

THE ECONOMY

• Owens: Colorado job numbers are up and unemployment is down to 5 percent, below the national average. Job growth in 2005 is projected at 2.8 percent, 1 point higher than the U.S. average, according to Economy.com.

• Democrats: Colorado ranks 48th in overall economy recovery, and metro-area foreclosures climbed 30 percent last year. The U.S. Labor Bureau says Colorado ranked second in the number of jobs lost between March 2001 and January 2004, second only to Massachusetts.

I believe I heard that Economy.com had downgraded its projection to 1.8 percent--but that is still substantially better than it has been for the last several years. Given the preponderance of technology in Colorado's jobs boom in the last decade, I think reasonable people can recognize that the bursting of the tech bubble might have affected us more than, say, Alabama. Besides, saying that we lost more jobs than all states but one, and still our unemployment is well below the national unemployment, seems to only point out the underlying strength of Colorado's economy. If, as projected, the jobs forecast works out, this can only be looked at as an indicator of Colorado economic soundness.

Owens: Colorado's per-capita personal income ranks eighth in the nation, and the state is in the top 10 states for personal income growth, with an expected growth rate of 5.6 percent, "up from under 1 percent in 2002."

• Democrats: Colorado ranks 49th in personal income growth, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

So these two numbers beg the question: what's the difference between per-capita personal income growth (as in the Governor's speech), and personal income growth (as in the Dem response). The answer: which statistician is looking at the numbers. But for a second, let's assume that both numbers are right. In that case, strong per capita growth, with even better projections, which results in a weak national ranking, actually underscores nothing but overall strength of the national economy. Not necessarily a great point for the Governor, but good for Republicans in general.

EDUCATION

Owens: According to CSAP results, 114 more schools are rated excellent and high than in 2001-2002, with almost 51,000 more students attending schools rated excellent or high. Sixty-five schools are rated low, representing 55,000 students.

• Democrats: Colorado ranks 49th in percent of total state wealth devoted to public schools, according to published news reports. The state ranks 48th in dropout rates, according to an Anne E. Casey Foundation study.

Ah, yes. Notice first that the Governor concentrates on the effect of education on children, while the Dems turn first to the money train. That sounds about right--it's always better for Democrats to spend money on a problem than to actually solve a problem. Secondly, the Anne E Casey Foundation measures dropout rates for students between 16 and 19--that is, if kids do not complete high school by time they're 19. But every Colorado school district has agressive and effective programs that help students obtain diplomas and/or GED's at any point in their lives, which makes a tremendous difference. Besides, if you check out the Foundation website and their data book, you find that Colorado is well above the national average on both 4th and 8th grade reading and math. Not really the sort of bad news I think the Dems--or, frankly, their pursestrings with the Colorado Education Assoc--were hoping for.

HEALTH

Owens: "Colorado also continues to be among the healthiest states in the country. Colorado Springs and Denver rank third and fifth, respectively, among America's fittest cities."

• Democrats: Colorado ranks last in the nation with 63 percent of its 2-year-olds fully immunized, according to the National Immunization Survey.


First of all, even according to the National Immunization Survey, "Immunization coverage - that is, ESTIMATES of the number of people who have received particular vaccines . . ." (emphasis mine)are created here. In other words, they're guessing, and the Dems are using that guesswork to craft a response to the Governor. Secondly, until and unless there's a epidemic proportion outbreak of the diseases children get immunized for, this is a complete red herring. What's their point? "Sure, we're healthy in general, and kids don't seem to be getting sick, BUT THERE'S A CHANCE. . ." Not the strongest argument in the world.

Perhaps one measure of the Democratic response can be seen coming from a website loosely affiliated with the Colorado Democratic Party:

And certainly no one would question applauding for the wounded war veteran, or the good Samaritan, who managed to get shot in the chest while he was trying to help a woman who was being mugged.

But I think Colorado would've been better served had the front row been populated slightly differently -- with a different kind of hero. For instance -- instead of adoptive parents, how 'bout one of the many single mothers who struggle to make it every day in Colorado. Like my friend Liz, who works full time and goes to school and single-handedly raises her 13-year-old son who to this day has never been to a dentist. Or my friend Sara, who cleans houses to support her 10 year-old-daughter and lives in a 300 sq. foot apartment.

I'm sorry. WHO MANAGED TO GET SHOT IN THE CHEST WHILE HE WAS . . . THIS is the reasoned, compassionate response? Perhaps the good Samaritan ought to have gone out and offered the muggers his own wallet if only they would leave the poor woman alone after robbing her. Yes, yes, that would make him a true hero. See, they prefer the "hero" who is overcoming horrible conditions OF THEIR OWN MAKING.

If this is representative of how the Democrats in the legislature think, it does, indeed, look like it will be a long two years full of follies and vetoes.
Posted by: Michael / 1/16/2005 01:41:00 AM

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